ABIO10 PGTW 070930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/070930Z-071800ZDEC2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZDEC2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07DEC20 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 81.9E, APPROXIMATELY 713 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.8S 82.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6S 108.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 107.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
271 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY 
INTO A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 070620Z GMI 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT (2-DEGREE DIAMETER) SYSTEM 
WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 070233Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS 
AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL INTENSIFY AND 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 070530) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
15.7S 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 217 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070532Z AMSR2 
89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 070147Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD 
CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOSTLY 15-20KT WINDS IN THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA WITH SOME CONSOLIDATION BEFORE 
MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3) AS LOW.//
NNNN