WTPN21 PGTW 061100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 156.1E TO 9.6N 153.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 17 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.8N 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 060739Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED 
TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEP CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WRAPPING 
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE 
TO WARM (30C) SST, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 
VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE IT 
TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071100Z.
//
NNNN