WTPN21 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120521ZOCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 16.2N 125.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120530). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.4E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM ENE OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), AND 
MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DETACHED 
FROM THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO THE NORTHWEST. 
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC. ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 98W TO DEVELOP IN, BUT THE 
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS RAPIDLY CLOSING DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY 
BEING FORKED OVER TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, NEUTRAL (15-20KTS) VWS, A 
DIMINISHING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, AND WARM 31-30C SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 98W MEANDERING 
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE 
UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL  FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO AN INVEST ONLY.//
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