WTPN21 PGTW 161730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 105.0E TO 3.8N 100.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 104.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 4.8N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 104.5E APPROXIMATELY 186 
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MUDDLED MESS OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AND 
EAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA. EASTERN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF 28W 
(TYPHOON RAI) IS APPLYING SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE TO THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH 97W, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 161500Z SHIP OBSERVATION JUST SOUTH OF THE 
LLCC REPORTED 23KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND FLOURISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 
MODERATE SHEAR (15-20 KTS). DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE 97W WILL TRACK 
WEST OVER THE MALAYAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAIT OF MALACCA. AS 
IT STANDS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES 
OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
171730Z.
//
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