WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 114.4E TO 21.4N 110.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 114.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8N 116.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEAR THE LLCC. THE LACK OF RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA PRECLUDE A HIGH CONFIDENCE 
ASSESSMENT OF THE PRECISE POSITION OF THE LLCC, OTHER THAN TO SAY IT IS 
TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED, BUT 
SLOW, DEVELOPMENT OF 96W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS AND 
ECMWF ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL NORTHWESTERLY 
TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
260200Z.//
NNNN