WTPN21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 136.9E TO 13.3N 139.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 119 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
092354Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED IN FLARING CONVECTION WITH SWATHS OF ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE 
EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS CONSIDERED TOO 
ILL-DEFINED TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON SOME DEGREE OF CONSOLIDATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE 
FOR DEVELOPMENT IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GRADUAL 
TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110300Z.//
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