WTPN23 PGTW 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081521ZOCT21//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921ZOCT21//
AMPN/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 162.4E TO 18.3N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 162.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.5N 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
310NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 090824Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT 
WIND BARBS AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GREATER THAN 20 KT 
WIND BARBS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH 
GRADIENT FLOW AND CONVECTION, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT 
INTENSIFIES BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
101400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 131.9E. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 133.5E. //
NNNN