WTPN21 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 
190 NM RADIUS OF 26.5N 140.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 140.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 26.3N 141.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 106 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ALONG THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), 
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060601Z 
TMS (TROPICS) 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. SURFACE WINDS FROM 
IWO-TO INDICATE STEADY WEST-SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS 
WITH A SLP VALUE NEAR 1001 MB AND A 2 MB SLP DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK 
WITH STEADY CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
070900Z.//
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