WTIO21 PGTW 020230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)// 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 90.8E TO 13.5N 85.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 90.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 90.4E, APPROXIMATELY 629NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. A 2230Z SSMIS 91HZ IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING WHILE MORE RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A MASS OF CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 94W IS AT THE LIMINAL POINT OF ITS MATURATION, CURRENTLY EXISTING IN A BOUNDARY LAYER OF MODERATE (20 KTS) TO LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL 94W WILL ENTER A POCKET OF LOW VWS. ACCOUNTING FOR THAT, THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) 94W WILL ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS SUGGEST 94W WILL REACH THE 35KT WARNING THRESHOLD, HOWEVER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LACKADAISICAL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 030230Z. // NNNN