WTPN21 PGTW 260200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 135.1E TO 14.8N 126.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 270200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 260011Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A NICE SIZED WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC WITH A PLETHORA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN SECTION. 93W STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO GET DOWN TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND INCREASES IN THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE IN ALIGNMENT THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE MORE INTO A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS IT WANDERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270200Z. // NNNN