WTPN21 PGTW 290600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280552ZNOV21// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 93W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 142.5E TO 13.7N 136.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 142.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, AND DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLC. A 290420Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10- 15KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND CONSOLIDATION WITH A GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. REFER TO REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 290600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300600Z.// NNNN