WTPN21 PGTW 222030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 130.7E TO 18.3N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 130.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.8N 133.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) IS DISPLACED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION UNDER THE PRESENCE OF 
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). A 221634Z AMSR2 89GHZ 
IMAGE REVEALS A LOOSELY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND A 221307Z ASCAT 
METOP-C PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS LOCATED 40-60 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS 
INDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS DECREASING, AND THE 
SYSTEM, NOW ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IS SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
232030Z.//
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