WTPN21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 126.6E TO 16.4N 123.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 353 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR 
92W ARE FAVORABLE WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW 
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A WEST 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS UP THE EASTERN COAST OF THE 
PHILIPPINES, WITH ECMWF AND GFS AGGRESSIVELY FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020300Z.
//
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