WTPN21 PGTW 061430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZOCT21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N 112.8E TO 18.8N 107.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 112.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6N 114.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
271 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
IMAGE DEPICTS BROAD, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED, 
BROAD, AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH STRONG  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
INVEST 92W HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION, NOT ONLY 
WITH THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE BUT WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD AS 
EVIDENCED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING 10-20KT WIND BARBS 
AROUND THE BROAD (100NM) LLC AND 25-30KT BARBS ALONG THE EXTREME 
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL 
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD 
WITH INCREASING SPREAD TO OVER 300NM IN JUST TWO DAYS. GFS IS THE 
EXTREME OUTLIER LOOPING THE VORTEX BACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071430Z.
//
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