WTPN31 PGTW 282100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (KULAP) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 19W (KULAP) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 36.6N 153.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 28 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.6N 153.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 41.6N 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 41 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 48.1N 166.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 154.7E. 28SEP22. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 19W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, UNDER THE JET WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL ANALYSIS DATA INDICATES A FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH THICKNESS PACKING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE; A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT IN ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. CORE STRUCTURE IN EIR, HOWEVER, HAS PERSISTED WITH A LARGE EYE NOW BROADENING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS THUS FAR BEEN ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF FROM THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A 281543Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE INDICATES AN ASYMMETRIC WINDFIELD WITH 65 TO 70 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE AMSR2 WINDSPEED DATA. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT OCCLUDES AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLD WATER (LESS THAN 20C). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN TYPHOON-STRENGTH WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN