WTPN32 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 33.9N 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 39 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 39.3N 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 43.0N 170.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 158.2E. 14OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 39 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), POKING OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION ENVELOPE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEAR APART. A 132159Z GMI MICROWAVE SUITE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED BY THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF CIRRUS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL BANDS EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER, IN A CLASSIC EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEPICTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 131911Z SMOS PASS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEGUN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PHASE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE OPEN-CELL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHWARD IN THE CLEAR AIR TO THE WEST. THE CLASSIC SHAPE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FLOWING UP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PROVIDES ADDITIONAL CLUES THAT COMPLETION OF ETT IS IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT A BLAZING 40 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TURN TO A MORE EAST OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO, BUT WELL SOUTH OF, THE ALEUTIANS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 45 FEET. // NNNN