WTPN31 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 045// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA) WARNING NR 045 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 42.0N 160.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 42.0N 160.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 43.2N 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 43.8N 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 42.3N 161.7E. 03AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 12W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 866 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND HEAVILY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND REMAINING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, AN OLDER 021048Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH HIGHER INTENSITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL, DUE TO CROSSING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH. TS 12W IS POSITIONED POLEWARD OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET. ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND ECMWF PHASE CYCLONE DIAGRAMS. ADDITIONALLY, VERY COLD (17-18 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE CREATING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (BAILU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN