WTPN31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 29.5N 138.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.5N 138.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 32.1N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 34.4N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 36.3N 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 139.3E. 12JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT 03W IS BEING DECAPITATED BY THE JET STREAM IT IS INTERACTING WITH. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY BEING SWEPT OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND FALLING SSTS WHICH WILL ALL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM STEADILY THROUGH TIME. THE STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING OF THE PASSING JET WILL PROGRESS 03W THROUGH SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, AND INITIATE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 40 FEET.// NNNN