WTXS21 PGTW 290630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (INVEST 98S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281721Z APR 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.1S 111.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
422 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 290223Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 
25KT WINDS OFFSET 200 NM TO THE SOUTH EAST OF THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
98S WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT AS IT REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND TAU 48.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE 
FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 281730).//
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