WTPS21 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 97P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 152.6E TO 14.5S 155.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 152.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 
152.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY MSI SHOWS A VERY COMPACT CIRCULATION, WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A TIMELY 100329Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICORWAVE PASS REVEALS A NASCENT 
MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A 
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CYAN RING 
SURROUNDING THE NASCENT EYE FEATURE, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE 
THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY WHILE HEADING 
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110600Z.
//
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