WTPS21 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 138.2E TO 17.6S 142.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 138.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 138.4E, APPROXIMATELY 59 
NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY, AND A 021245Z METOP-B 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
THROUGHOUT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 97P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STEADILY 
INTENSIFYING.  NEAR TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL, 
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
032000Z.//
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