WTXS21 PGTW 280100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 120.0E TO 15.4S 120.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 120.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 120E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 272224Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF 
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 
C). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 96S 
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD 
TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290100Z.//
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