WTXS21 PGTW 290200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 99.2E TO 15.9S 104.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 99.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 98.9E IS NOW LOCATED AT 13.3S 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280120Z HIMAWARI-9 VIS IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LLCC WITH QUAZI-STATIONARY CONVECTION BUILDING OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 96S TO BE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLAR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) OFFSET BY HIGH VWS (25-30 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK SOUTH EASTWARD INTO A LOWER AREA OF VWS AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300200Z. // NNNN