WTXS21 PGTW 140530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 75.6E TO 13.4S 73.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S 75.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.2S 74.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
FULLY OBSCURED BY DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALOFT. A 140049Z SSMIS 
F16 37GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE 
(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND 
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CONSOLIDATION OF 95S AND ANTICIPATED 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150530Z.//
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