WTXS21 PGTW 251330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 
135 NM RADIUS OF 12.4S 52.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE 
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS 
AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
METSAT IMAGERY AT 251300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 52.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 52.9E, APPROXIMATELY 398 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH 
A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER 
AND A FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 251006Z 
AMSR2 36 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 28-29 C, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE 
SOUTH. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT 
48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
261330Z.//
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