WTXS21 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S 95.0E TO 13.2S 93.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 29 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S 95.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.3S 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 159 NM 
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 281304Z 37GH COLOR COMPOSITE GMI PARTIAL PASS DEPICT DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WARPING AROUND THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES WITH VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 29 TO 34 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291500Z.
//
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