WTXS22 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT  (INVEST 95S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251Z MAR 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 010300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 110.6E TO 11.3S 113.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 110.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5S 111.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 110.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
295 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION.  A 011430Z PARTIAL ASCAT C PASS REVEALS 30 KNOT WINDS 
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND 
WARM (29-30C); OFFSET BY HIGH (30-35KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT INVEST 95S WILL HAVE LITTLE 
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
021800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 123.3E
//
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