WTPS21 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 136.1E TO 14.5S 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 136.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5S 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 56 
NM SOUTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION 
VALID AT 150038Z REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VWS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD 
INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160130Z.//
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