WTPS21 PGTW 260330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 94P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 176.0E TO 14.9S 169.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 175.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 179.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 260146Z 183GHZ ATMS IMAGE DEPICT WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS THAT HAS NOT YET COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MOST RECENT 252151Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS STRAIGHT-LINE WIND FLOW OF 30-35KTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLC, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT MODEL DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 94P IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270330Z. // NNNN