WTXS21 PGTW 230130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 77.7E TO 14.1S 74.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 77.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.7S 79.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 77.2E, APPROXIMATELY 439 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222233Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS 
ACCELERATED INTENSIFICATION AND STRUCTURE WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY 
STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE 
AND DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
240130Z.//
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