WTPS21 PGTW 300330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 147.9E TO 13.8S 154.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 148.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.4S 143.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
260NM NORTH EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292253Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. A PARTIAL 292254Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION 
WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND 
EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
310330Z.
//
NNNN