WTXS21 PGTW 120230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZSEP25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 110800).//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 110800). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 91.3E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 91.3S, APPROXIMATELY 338NM OF THE COCOS ISALANDS. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DOES NOT DEPICT A 
DEFINABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR INVEST 93S, ONLY A 
VERY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED ROTATION WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 112122Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED 
AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED ROTATION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 
PATCH OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS HAVE RAPIDLY BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE 
RUNS, WITH NO MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEPICT A MODEST 
AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SAME TIME WINDOW. BOTH GLOBAL AND 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN 
VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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