WTPS22 PGTW 151430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 138.4E TO 18.1S 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 138.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6S 137.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 151238Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SHALLOW RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL, 
AFTER A BRIEF QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD, TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
161430Z.//
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