WTPS21 PGTW 041130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 160.9E TO 21.0S 162.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 160.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 160.6E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 409 NM NORTHWEST OF 
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER.  A KNES DVORAK INTENSITY OF 2.0 
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS WIND DATA (30KTS) AS WELL AS A 4MB 
REDUCTION IN PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 5 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DEEP 
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P 
IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG, RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
051130Z.
//
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