WTPS21 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8S 164.0E TO 22.7S 170.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0S 164.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.5S 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 164.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), JUST NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 
KNOTS, STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE 
WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK AND A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL TC INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
030600Z.//
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