WTXS21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 129.4E TO 14.1S 129.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220120Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 129.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 128.1E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM NORTHWEST OF 
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
PERSISTENT AND CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED 
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SST IN THE TIMOR SEA OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 
KNOT) EASTERLY VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL 
MOVE MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY TO 
WARNING CRITERIA AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS JUST BEFORE 
IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230200Z.//
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