WTXS21 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2S 87.8E TO 10.0S 88.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S 87.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.1S 88.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 87.9E, APPROXIMATELY 636 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061114Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP 
CONVECTION AT THE CORE OF A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLC, BUT IS CONSTRAINED TO A FAIRLY SMALL REGION ABOUT THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE 
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). NOTE THAT CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE DATA LACKS AMV 
DATA AT THIS TIME AND HAND ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS 
SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTUAL VWS VALUES ARE LOWER THAN THE CIMSS 
ANALYSIS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE INVEST WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
071400Z.//
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