WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 96.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 96.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 15.3S 96.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 15.6S 97.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 15.4S 97.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.9S 97.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 96.4E.
20MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
137 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS NOW VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A 201501Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALED A BAND OF 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A COUPLE SCATTERED 35 KNOT BARBS, AIDING IN
THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE THE VORTEX. AFTER
TAU 24, THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES VERY WEAK AND SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE VORTEX DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. GFS HAS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EASTWARD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
(AFTER TAU 96) AND EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT FORMS ABOUT 390 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. THIS
INTERACTION WOULD ALLOW 26S TO REINTENSIFY. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEN AND WILL NOT HAVE THE CHANCE TO REINTENSIFY. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET.//
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