WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 93.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 93.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 22.7S 93.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 93.3E.
17MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BILLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1163
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAIN CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC, ALONG WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AS EVIDENCED BY THE COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS BANDS IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
30KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS HELD SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE T1.6/26KTS FROM ADT, AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH
THE PGTW FIX OF T2.0/30KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH WARM SST AND 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG (50KT+) VWS.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT 
COMPLETELY DISSIPATES BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 11 FEET.//
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