WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 013    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 23.5S 54.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 54.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 23.8S 55.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 55.0E.
04FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181
NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND SHALLOW VORTEX TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
LA REUNION. MULTI-LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS SOUNDING 
DATA INDICATE A VERY DEEP, DRY AIR MASS OVER TOP OF THE REMNANT 
VORTEX, WHILE THE LATEST CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS REVEALS OVER 40 KNOTS OF 
WESTERLY SHEAR AT HIGHER ALTITUDES OVER THE SYSTEM. A 040431Z ASCAT 
BULLSEYE SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-27 KNOTS SCATTERED ABOUT THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AGENCY FIXES ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY, AS 
ARE THE OBJECTIVE ESIMATES, WITH MOST HOVERING AROUND 30 KNOTS. IN 
LIGHT OF THE ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS, 
THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY A BIT GENEROUS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, AFTER THE VORTEX SHALLOWED OUT AND 
MOVED INTO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN TWO COMPETING 
RIDGES. THE REMNANTS OF TC 19S ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHILE CONTINUING 
TO WEAKEN FURTHER BELOW THE BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD. SOME OF THE 
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A REINTENSIFICATION BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24, 
DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING AS THE VORTEX INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE 
TROF MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY COME TO PASS, BUT THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE SUBTROPICAL AT THAT POINT AND RAPIDLY BECOMING 
EXTRATROPICAL. JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TABS ON THE SYSTEM FOR SIGNS 
OF REDEVELOPMENT BUT AT THIS TIME THIS SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED HIGHLY 
UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS
1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET.//
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