WTXS31 PGTW 020900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 105.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 105.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.8S 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 19.7S 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 105.5E. 02APR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HERMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS ORGANIZED BANDING WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020144Z ASCAT-C PASS, ALONG WITH A 020232Z ASCAT-B PASS, BOTH SHOW A SMALL PATCH OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS DOMINATING THE REST OF THE WIND FIELD. THE SYSTEM ALBEIT SMALL, SOME WOULD SAY PEE-WEE, HERMAN IS UNDERGOING DISSIPATION AT AN IMPRESSIVE, EXPEDITED RATE SIMILAR TO HOW IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED ON MARCH 30TH. TC HERMAN IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COOLER (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES, AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI REVEALING THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT IMAGERY. TC HERMAN IS RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS IT CONTINUES THIS TRAJECTORY, TC HERMAN WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS ALL OF ITS MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DUE TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING MAJOR LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF TC 17S OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT TC HERMAN WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT TRANSITS TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES AFTER TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET.// NNNN