WTPS33 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.9S 167.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 167.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.0S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 167.0E. 03FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 57 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHWARD PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS VIGOROUS COLD AIR ADVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 022226Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, THE 030040Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 41KTS, THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, AND PGTW/KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS. CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES TC LUCAS IS QUICKLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AND WILL COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. AS SUCH, THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FORSIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET.// NNNN