WTPS31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 147.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 147.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.8S 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.4E. 18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHEARED FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS, AND TRIANGULATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS ANALYSIS OF PGTW T2.5/3.0 (DATA T OF 1.5) AND ABOM T2.0/2.5, AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25KT+ WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIAMETRICALLY AGAINST THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LLC. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29C), THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-CONSOLIDATE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THE REMNANTS OF TC 11P WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET.// NNNN