WTPS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNING NR 008    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 150.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 150.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 19.7S 147.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 149.2W.
08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
SOUTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED 
AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING EASTWARD TO THE 
SOUTH OF TAHITI. THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, 
ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED CIRRUS BLOWOFF ARE DRIFTING OVER THE 
LLCC BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND ARE NOT REFLECTIVE OF ANY CONVECTIVE 
REORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE THIS 
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE EVENTUALLY DIVING SOUTHWARD 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KNOTS AND DRY MID AND 
UPPER-LEVEL AIR OFFSETTING OTHERWISE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BASED 
ON A MANUAL PHASE WORKSHEET, THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN TRANSITION 
TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW, HAVING CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AND EXTRATROPICAL LOW. RAPID TRANSITION TO A GALE-FORCE 
SUBTROPICAL LOW IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WHILE THE 
SYSTEM UNDERGOES THIS TRANSITION, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AS IT 
TAPS INTO THE STRONG SURFACE FLUXES FROM THE WARM SEA SURFACE, AND 
ALSO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INCREASED BAROCLINIC FORCING FROM INTERACTIONS 
WITH THE STRONG 200MB JET MAX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR 
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P 
(OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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