WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN) WARNING NR 002    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 140.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 140.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 17.8S 142.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 17.9S 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 141.3E.
03JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (IMOGEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR 
DATA FROM ABOM INDICATES THAT TC 09P MADE LANDFALL NEAR KARUMBA, 
AUSTRALIA AT 031200Z, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE LACK OF ANY SUBJECTIVE OR OBJECTIVE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER LAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY INLAND WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AND IS 
EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
CAPE YORK PENINSULA NO LATER THAN TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. 
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 14 FEET.//
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