WTXS31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 64.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 64.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 19.0S 62.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 63.8E. 09JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090017Z SSMIS PASS REVEALS THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW, WITH ONLY TWO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE TOWERS AMID OTHERWISE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 25 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY A FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0/2.0 (25-30 KNOTS), AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.2. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT VWS IS GENERALLY LOW (5-10 KTS), HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING POOR OUTFLOW SUPPORT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING TO BETWEEN 26-27 DEG C. THE 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC. TC DANILO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 32NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 AS THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER WATER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FLAT, WITH THE 10-MEMBER COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATING AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A STEADY OR WEAKENING TREND. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 11 FEET.// NNNN