WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 5.8S 59.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.8S 59.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 5.4S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 5.7S 59.1E.
08AUG25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED 
APPROXIMATELY 250NM TO THE SOUTH. A 080441Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A 
HIGHLY ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS 
PRESENT UNDER THE CONVECTION 250NM TO THE SOUTH, WHILE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE LLCC, WINDS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE, MAXING OUT 
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B PASS NOTED ABOVE AND 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 
AND T2.5 RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY 
UNFAVORABLE, WITH THE SYSTEM HAVING RAPIDLY SUCCUMBED TO SIGNIFICANT 
DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, BOTH OF 
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN THE FUTURE. THE REMNANT 
LLCC WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE 
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FAR TO THE SOUTH, AND MAY PASS 
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SEYCHELLES WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 25 KNOTS) AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 11 FEET.
//
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