WTXS31 PGTW 272100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 78.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 78.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 14.2S 76.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.3S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 78.0E. 27SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ASHLEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO HIGH NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED INTO GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW BELOW 26C, INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, ALL LEADING TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF 02S BY TAU 24 IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS AS-WELL AS RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY RESPECTIVELY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO EACH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET.// NNNN