WTIO21 PGTW 070800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96B) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZDEC2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 86.2E TO 11.5N 80.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 85.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 86.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 85.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATED PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE WRAPPING 
OCCURRING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 070405Z ASCAT 
METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS REVEALED A VAST WIND FIELD WITH LARGE 
SWATHS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITH 35 KNOTS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND HIGH (30-40KT) 
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96B WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA WHILE GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFYING UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS 
DESPITE HAVING TO FIGHT AGAINST THE INTENSE VWS AND DRY AIR SEEPING IN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 
060800).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
080800Z.//
NNNN