WTIO21 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011451ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 83.6E TO 12.9N 81.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 83.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.3N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 021255Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA 
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN 
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 95B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTIO21 PGTW 011500).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
031500Z.//
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